February 4, 2026:
For more than a decade European NATO nations have been depending more on locally developed weapons and munitions rather than obtaining them from the United States. The war in Ukraine encouraged this trend because European nations now realize that they have a very real threat next door with Russia. The Americans are concentrating on how to deal with growing Chinese aggression in the Pacific.
The Result is NATO fending for itself more than any time in the past. For example, Germany is currently building the first of six F126 frigates. These will be the largest warships to serve in the German navy since World War II. The first of the six 10,000-ton F126s will enter service in 2028. Each ship will cost about $1.5 billion. These frigates are 177 meters long and have a top speed of about 50 kilometers an hour. Economical cruising speed is 21 kilometers an hour. Max range is 7,400 kilometers at cruising speed. Endurance is 21 days before refueling and resupply is needed. The crew of 114 can be augmented by 84 additional specialist personnel, including special operations troops. There is a full range of electronics including surface and air search radars as well as fire control radar and sonar for detecting and tracking submarines. Radios include one that uses a satellite link. There are several decoy systems to disrupt the guidance systems on incoming missiles. If that doesn’t work, there are several anti-missiles systems using autocannon and missiles. There are also VLS cells for up to 64 anti-aircraft missiles. Eight NSM anti-ship and land attack missiles are carried. There are also two 27mm autocannon and four 12.7 machine-guns. There are also non-lethal water cannons and long range acoustic devices to send warnings to small boats approaching the frigate. Two helicopters and one UAV are carried along with a hangar to hold all of them. The F126 is designed to be continuously deployed for two years without need for major maintenance. This means a F126 can operate for 5,000 hours a year, which means 57 percent of 365 days in a year. Warships tend to spend a lot of time idle in port.
While the F126 was built for combat, its predecessor, the F125 frigates, also contained many innovations. Unfortunately, that resulted in an unexpected and unwanted distinction; the first ship of the class, the Baden-Württemberg, was rejected by the navy after failing to perform during sea trials. The builder quickly addressed the most serious problems, which were all software related. The Baden-Württemberg finally entered service in 2018.
The Baden-Württemberg did not begin a year of sea trials until the end of 2016. This produced a growing list of problems the builders hustled to fix while also dealing with some of the defects. The list of problems was too long, and the navy refused to accept, or commission, the Baden-Württemberg into service. While this was embarrassing, it was also the right thing to do because otherwise the problems would have become a major scandal.
Not all the problems were made public, if only because some involved new tech that was highly classified. It was known that a new computerized command and control software system for the CIC combat information center had an unacceptable number of bugs as did some of the other software for automating operation of the ship and making possible a smaller, by about 50 percent, crew than would normally be needed. The new radar system and other sensors had problems as did the damage control system. All these are easily fixed. There was also a perceptible 1.3 degree list to starboard, which has since been fixed.
The four F125 frigates displace 7,200 tons each. This is larger than some destroyers, but it's become unfashionable in Europe to call a warship a destroyer. Those attitudes played a role in the failure of the Baden-Württemberg. It was no secret that attracting the best engineering and design talent to warship construction has been difficult. Since the Cold War ended in 1991 and Germany was reunited, it became fashionable to downplay defense in general and working in the military or defense industries became less popular. Even though these industries remained major employers and Germany continued to export innovative warship designs, the F125s were more innovative than any surface warship Germany had put into service during the last century.
European firms have long been producing world-class tanks, artillery, combat aircraft and electronic systems, but depended on the United States for more complex systems. Now European manufacturers are seeking to compete with the American products in all categories.
Over the last four years of war in Ukraine, NATO countries have supplied about $85 billion a year in military and commercial assistance. Initially most of this aid came from the United States. Gradually European nations expanded their own arms production and assisted Ukrainian arms producers in rebuilding local armaments facilities. This meant more of the military aid was coming from European countries and less from the United States. Ukraine has long been a major arms producer, but the Russians have destroyed some of these arms production operations since the 2022 invasion.
During the first few months of the Russian invasion Ukrainian producers supplied their military with the needed weapons and munitions. Russia responded while destroying many of those arms manufacturing facilities with missiles and airstrikes. By 2023 most of the arms and munitions were imported from the United States and NATO countries. European nations believe that expanding their own arms industries improves their ability to deter any future aggression from Russia.
Eleven years ago, Ukraine hampered Russian arms production by halting shipments of vital components for Russian helicopters and warships. Although only 4.4 percent of Russian imports were from Ukraine, some of these items were crucial for Russian weapons producers and Russian efforts to modernize their armed forces.
The links between production facilities concentrated in Ukraine dates back to when Ukraine was a region of the Soviet Union. When the Soviet Union collapsed into fourteen new nations in 1991, Ukraine and its arms industry were not part of the new Russian Federation. This meant Russia was now dependent on Ukraine for key items like components for aircraft, missiles, ICBMs and warship engines.
The largest and most productive Ukrainian defense manufacturer was Motor Sich which produces engines for helicopters. Many of the Soviet era shipyards were located in the Crimean Peninsula. After 1991 Crimea belonged to Ukraine. Russia refused to let Ukraine take possession of Crimea and grabbed it back in 2014. Russian shipyards still operate in Crimea although these facilities have been damaged by persistent Ukrainian attacks, and Crimean ports are avoided by Russian shipping due to UAV attacks.
For years Russia has been building factories locally to reduce dependence on those located in Ukraine and Crimea. The economic sanctions imposed on Russia after they invaded Ukraine in 2022 further complicated Russian plans to rebuild their arms industries. Russia has managed to maintain defense production, but quality and quantity have suffered. Russian producers depended on key components imported from Western Europe. The sanctions cut off that source and Russia has tried to replace it with manufacturers in China and a few other countries. They were partially successful, but Russian defense production will not recover completely until the war in Ukraine is over.